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                                                                                                                                                                          www.xpj70007.com点击进入官方直营网站!:利空因素集中释放 节前玉米价格行情弱势运行为主

                                                                                                                                                                            随新粮上量明显增加,企业到货量增多,加上深加工企业拍卖粮库存充足,部分企业压价收购。临近春节,部分农户变现需求和还贷压力刺激上量进程,售粮积极性提高。但是也有农户对价格下跌认可度不高,近期售粮行为有所减少。贸易商对后市不太乐观,收购心态相对谨慎,随收随走,基本没有多余库存。

                                                                                                                                                                            华北产区:用粮企业库存高位

                                                                                                                                                                            1月份以来,本地粮源持续供应,东北粮陆续到货,加上进口玉米到港,企业到货量充足,各家库存逐渐维持高位。华北地区农户售粮进度基本过半,与去年同期相差不大。年关将至,部分企业补库逐渐进入尾声,采购谨慎,维持日常生产水平为主。农户售粮积极性较上月有所提升,主要是受粮价下跌和还贷压力渐增影响。

                                                                                                                                                                            南方销区:饲料企业采购心态谨慎

                                                                                                                                                                            近期销区玉米现货价格弱势运行为主,受北方玉米发运成本降低和物流运费小幅下调影响,南北倒挂幅度缩小。非洲猪瘟肆虐,销区生猪市场持续低迷,饲料企业采购心态维持谨慎,基本维持安全库存为主。

                                                                                                                                                                            南北港口:港口价格整体稳定

                                                                                                                                                                            锦州港天气:晴。锦州港口陈粮主流收购价14水以内容重700以上1845元/吨,较昨日不变;18年新粮20水1720元/吨,较昨日不变;15水容重700以上1825-1835元/吨,高点较昨日上涨5元/吨;今日中粮系统1830元/吨,较昨日不变;象屿1830元/吨,象屿较昨日不变。今早汽运到港168车,较昨日减少72车,此外有铁路集港情况。广东港口18年二等新粮价格1960-1980元/吨,较昨日不变;广东港口集装箱二等陈粮自提价1990-2000元/吨,较昨日不变;一等陈玉米2000-2010元/吨,较昨日不变;18年新粮报价2020-2030元/吨,较昨日不变。随着节日临近,饲企提货速度加快,同时受北方港口价格趋弱制约,贸易商报价心态暂稳。

                                                                                                                                                                            饲料养殖:猪价分化趋缓

                                                                                                                                                                            8月份非洲猪瘟发生后,受活猪跨省禁运政策影响,区域间供需出现不平衡现象,产区跌、销区涨。随着猪瘟解锁的地区越来越多,调运政策有所松动,改“调猪”为“调肉”,生猪市场流通渠道逐渐通畅,产销区猪价分化趋缓。但是目前非洲猪瘟仍然比较严重,本应处在消费旺季的生猪市场比较冷清,预计节前猪价维持低位运行。

                                                                                                                                                                            深加工:下游需求萎缩导致产品库存累积

                                                                                                                                                                            受原料玉米价格下降影响,加上玉米淀粉行业库存仍然处于高位,部分企业淀粉报价持续走低,青冈龙凤最新报价2350元/吨,周比下降30元/吨;寿光金玉米最新报价2490元/吨,周比下滑60元/吨。下游造纸、食品等终端行业需求萎缩,淀粉产品库存逐渐累积,部分厂家为刺激下游市场的接货积极性小幅下调价格,但效果并不明显。